The Value of Forward-Thinking

On Thursday (November 21, 2024), I was honored with a lovely award from the “Forward Thinker Initiative 2024” by Handelsblatt and BCG: “Forward Thinker in the Category of Innovation.” This made me very happy because it shows that forward thinkers are (once again) being recognized in Germany. The award ceremony triggered many thoughts in me about forward-thinking, which I’d like to share with you here.

In Germany, we love titles like Professor, Doctor, Engineer. Mouthfuls that end with “-ship” or “-ology” impress us. But “Forward Thinker”? That sounds suspiciously like someone who doesn’t live in the here and now and gets lost in daydreams. Yet, upon closer look, the term is a huge compliment. Wanting to be a forward thinker describes a high aspiration. Those who think ahead don’t just see what is but recognize what’s coming—and more importantly, what could come.

Forward thinkers are a rare breed. They go where no one has gone before and shine a light into the dark corners of the future so the rest of us can find the way.

But here’s where it gets tricky: thinking ahead means taking risks, making mistakes, and above all, it means making yourself unpopular—because you might point out issues before they’re even visible. That’s why forward thinkers have such a hard time in politics. But more on that in a bit.

Unlike reacting, forward-thinking is an active discipline. A forward thinker doesn’t wait to think about an umbrella until it’s raining cats and dogs. Even if the weather report predicts clear skies, they’ll look up, watch the clouds and wind, and compare what they see with their experience. And then, dressed for the occasion, they even have an extra umbrella for others. Forward thinkers do look for solutions to potential problems—but more importantly, they aim to prevent problems from arising in the first place.

That’s the theory. But nowadays, we face quite a few concrete, pressing challenges precisely because we forgot how to think ahead a long time ago. Take the German pension system as an example. It relies on the working population financing the pensions of the older generation. Sounds simple and works well—as long as the birth rate is high, the population is growing, and the economy is booming. But by the 1990s at the latest, it should have been clear that we’re an aging society. Back then, a bold forward thinker would have proposed ways to fundamentally change the system to make it future-proof. Instead, we heard, “Pensions are safe,” and a few superficial tweaks were made that weren’t sustainable.

Even today, we’re witnessing a lack of forward-thinking in European politics as a whole. Yes, we might not like to hear this, but that doesn’t make it any less true: hardly any German or European politician thought through the scenario of a Donald Trump election victory. Otherwise, some things might have been phrased a bit more diplomatically over the past months and years. Now we’re in a situation where Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is one of the very few in the EU who can credibly and amicably extend a hand to Trump. Almost the entire German political landscape has repeatedly positioned itself toward Trump in a personal and unobjective manner, which isn’t exactly helpful for fostering a good relationship with the new administration. And don’t get me wrong, I’m no fan of Trump. But that’s not the point. I’m a fan of democracy! With our disrespect toward a presidential candidate, we ultimately showed disrespect to the roughly 80 million voters who gave Trump their vote in a democratic election of a sovereign country.

It’s Not Just About Politics

But it would be unfair to point the finger only at politics. In the Trump example just mentioned, businesses and media weren’t very forward-thinking either.

And especially in business, we find it particularly hard to think ahead where current success is greatest—or was. The German automotive industry is a prime example. For decades, we were the undisputed world champions of the combustion engine. Then came the shock: Tesla appeared and showed—though their cars weren’t technically perfect—how to make electric mobility sexy and marketable. The German industry initially reacted with skepticism and rejection, sometimes even mockery. Later, forced by circumstances, they launched half-hearted initiatives. The result? A market we could have shaped was missed.

Another example is the development of trade relations with China. For a long time, the Chinese market was a growth guarantee. German cars were considered status symbols there. But today, Chinese car brands are massively catching up, supported by their government and focusing on e-mobility. But this wasn’t surprising. A forward thinker would have foreseen—looking at history—that this market in China would also develop its own self-confidence. Just like the textile and later the electronics industry did. We always hoped China and other Asian countries would forever play their double role as low-wage producers and sales markets. But who wants to play the same role their whole life? Especially when they realize they could be so much more.

Why do so many leaders shy away from taking the responsibility of forward-thinking seriously? My theory: forward-thinking is rarely rewarded in the present. A smart decision that bears fruit only in 20 years looks like an unnecessary risk today. The results of forward-thinking remain invisible for the moment.

Those who act in time prevent problems. But problems that don’t occur don’t get any attention. And without attention, you can’t climb the ladder in politics or business. Imagine a company had decided 15 years ago to invest massively in robotics. Today, it could be a leader in humanoid robotics—a technology that will open up huge markets in the coming decades. But 15 years ago, that would have been dismissed as an expensive “nice-to-have” and left to institutional research. Just a pipe dream. It’s Never Too Late to Start Thinking Ahead.

Where could we think ahead today? An exciting field is cognitive robotics—and I don’t just mean robotic arms in factories, but also humanoid robots capable of solving complex tasks and interacting with humans to support areas like care, education, or logistics.

The numbers speak for themselves: a recent study estimates that the global robotics industry could reach a market value of over 200 billion euros by 2030.

What sounds huge here is, in truth, another example of lacking forward-thinking. Because when you consider that China alone plans to build over 30 million humanoid robots by 2030—which would have a sales value of about 1.4 trillion euros in Europe by today’s standards—the initial estimate is already far exceeded. And any forward thinker can deduce without further numbers: this market will be much larger than anything we’ve ever seen. Because if China alone is setting such a pace, the entire West will have to measure up and keep up to avoid ending up as an unproductive industrial museum.

In Germany, this technology could not only create new jobs but also solve existing challenges. Take the pension system: if humanoid robots increasingly take over productive work, they could contribute to the pension funds. After all, companies save a lot of money through robotics and increase their efficiency. That could be a starting point in the interest of the community. Perhaps an unpopular decision for some entrepreneurs, but one that has the potential to secure long-term peace in our society.

Political and economic decision-makers bear immense responsibility today. Their salaries and bonuses reflect the expectation not just to manage but to actively shape the future. Those who only explain why things went wrong haven’t grasped the essence of their job. It’s about avoiding problems before they arise. Yes, forward-thinking requires courage. It means making decisions that aren’t always popular. But that’s exactly where the opportunity lies: those who bravely forge ahead today can not only overcome challenges but also become role models for others.

The future doesn’t wait. It takes shape while we speak—or while we stay silent. The difference lies in whether we actively shape it or let it steamroll us later. Forward-thinking isn’t an option; it’s a duty. For companies, for governments, for each of us.

For me personally, being called a “forward thinker” isn’t a burden but an honor. As Oscar Wilde so aptly put it: “The future belongs to those who see possibilities before they become obvious.”